HomePortfoliosSP500 + BTCFIRE Projection

FIRE Projection

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A forward-looking Monte Carlo projection for SP500 + BTC, bootstrapped from its own historical performance.

7.6yr history · 28 Feb 2019–16 Oct 2026+21.39% annualized return+19.03% volatilityUSD base currency
Fund fees (TER) are already reflected in these historical prices. The projection assumes your current holdings and allocation stay constant going forward.
Your FIRE inputs
Adjust the assumptions below and re-run the projection.
Default baseline: edit to match what you've actually invested
Added at the start of each month
In today's USD, retirement lifestyle
$750,000
In today's USD. Grows with inflation over time, see chart
%
Share of the portfolio drawn each year in retirement
Sets the chart's age axis
Marked on the chart in violet
%
ECB target rate. Grows your FIRE target; contributions stay flat
Projected portfolio value
10th–90th percentileMedian (50th)Wealth milestone
$0$20.0M$40.0M$60.0M$80.0MFIRE number, inflation-adjusted34404551566267AGE
Crossover
FIRE
Retirement age
Simulated using 10,000 Monte Carlo paths bootstrapped from this portfolio's historical monthly returns, and adjusted for 2% annual inflation. Contributions continue at $500/month for the whole projection, including past your target retirement age, and are not increased with inflation. Nothing is withdrawn, so this shows when you reach your number, not how long it lasts afterwards. Figures are gross of tax and shown in the portfolio's base currency (USD). Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.
Crossover point
2028
You'll be 36
Median scenario: 2028 · Optimistic (90th percentile): 2028
From this point, your portfolio's expected monthly growth exceeds your $500/month contribution. Compounding is now doing more for you than saving is.
Full FIRE
2043
You'll be 51
Median scenario: 2043 · Optimistic (90th percentile): 2039
Your portfolio reaches your inflation-adjusted $750,000 target, covering $30,000/year of today's spending power.
Retirement age
2057
Age 65, as set above
Projected balance: $15,983,399 median (1153% of your $1,385,692 target)
Optimistic (90th percentile): $53,491,529. Conservative (10th percentile): $4,921,696.